Here’s some analysis for Saturday’s card. I’d love to hear what you think about the races. Some of them are awfully tough. Hopefully some of this will help out!
Race 1: Both #2 PAPA RAFA and #7 REWIRING drop in to this level out of the same race in which each of them were well-beaten behind a runaway, impressive winner. I think that either could get the job done, but if the morning-line is any indication, the price will be much better on PAPA RAFA. For that reason, and the fact that he figures to move forward in start number two, I’ll land there on the drop. #8 LITTLE FEAT throws his share of duds but nearly got over the top last out in a suspect race.
Picks: #2 PAPA RAFA, #7 REWIRING, #8 LITTLE FEAT
Race 2: I’m a huge fan of the way #2 ABLE looked on the track when I saw her the morning before the Million, and I’m willing to forgive her flop last out. The drop should help her cause, and I’d give her one more chance. #7 CUPID’S BEST races for Wayne Catalano, and she too drops in off some solid races, though not sure the gal who beat her in her last is really anything much. #8 SWIG was three zip codes away in her debut, but did show some early hoof there, starts for a solid barn, and could move forward enough to factor.
Picks: #2 ABLE, #7 CUPID’S BEST, #8 SWIG
Race 3: Morning-line favorite #2 TIGHT GRIP looks tough in here, but it’s #1 PRINCEVILLE CONDO who keeps grabbing my eye when I look at this race. He had some trouble in his last, yet still just missed behind FREE FIGHTER, who came back to win the Grade III Stars & Stripes in his last. #5 LUCKMAN & #6 DENIM both figure as mild contenders, but would seem to need some things to fall their way to get the job done.
Picks: #1 PRINCEVILLE CONDO, #2 TIGHT GRIP, #6 DENIM
Race 4: Considering the fact that #8 PEACEFUL BATTLE is a Team Block horse, albeit one trained by Neil Pessin, it was something to behold when she was ignored at 35-1 at the windows in her debut. She nearly scored in that spot, but came back with a professional, stalking win as the 2-1 favorite in her last, and this race didn’t come up too tough. #3 DEL BONITA is the first foal to race out of one of my favorite local mares, BAILAR, and she seems to be rounding into form and figuring things out. She could get over the top. #2 EXPLOIT THE SUN has every right to win, but settles for minor awards too often to trust.
Picks: #8 PEACEFUL BATTLE, #3 DEL BONITA, #2 EXPLOIT THE SUN
Race 5: #4 PENALTY KICK drops two levels down to this basement spot, and he’s run races more than good enough to win this. Figure the drop will do the trick, and E. T. signs on for this run. #2 LEOPOLD BLOOM also drops in, and deserves his morning-line favorite status, but he doesn’t strike me as a horse who will ever really have a knack for finding the wire. #6 GLORY CREEK is as honest as they come for this level, having run just one poor race in the last calendar year, but he too doesn’t seem all that interested in winning.
Picks: #4 PENALTY KICK, #2 LEOPOLD BLOOM, #6 GLORY CREEK
Race 6: #6 EXECUTIVE COACH could have easily been chosen as my hard-luck horse of the meet. He won a conditioned claiming race here the second weekend of the meet, and he’s run 2nd, 2nd, 3rd, 2nd, 3rd in five tries at this level since. He’s as overdue as a horse can be. #7 ZAGAMOR ran a good starter field off their feet last time out and could hang around longer than expected, while #4 WAKEUPBRANDON may sit a perfect press-and-pounce trip.
Picks: #6 EXECUTIVE COACH, #7 ZAGAMOR, #4 WAKEUPBRANDON
Race 7: Locals should remember the dam of the #4 FIGHTING JO JO, the stakes winner LIZ ON POLK STREET. This Frank Calabrese homebred has regal bloodlines and figures to be ready off a string of decent works. #2 IDEALHOUSE is the obvious choice, but really had no excuse at all in her last as the 3-2 favorite, and I’d be hesitant to rely on her to get to the wire first, though she obviously could. #5 LUNAR MIST isn’t bred to be a star, but fetched a whopping $92,000 at auction….she must be a looker.
Picks: #4 FIGHTING JO JO, #2 IDEALHOUSE, #5 LUNAR MIST
Race 8: #5 SPUNKY MONKEY is bred to be a pretty good one and debuts off solid works for a good barn. #3 ROCHELLE ROCHELLE is also well-bred, but has failed to do anything at all in a pair of starts so far. That said, her connections wanted to enter her on the lawn first time out and were rained off, so I’m willing to give her another chance if this thing stays on the grass, and she’ll be a big price too. #1 DREAMINOFJOSEPHINE is the safe play, having run a few good races so far and just missing in her last.
Picks: #5 SPUNKY MONKEY, #3 ROCHELLE ROCHELLE, #1 DREAMINOFJOSEPHINE
Race 9: Um, wow. You could easily use eight of these in the pick-4, and I’ll go deep here on my suggested ticket. This race is tough — if #6 PISTOL PETE AFLEET runs his race, he’s the winner. If not, all tote board chaos could break loose. I’ll go with #7 CAPE SAN BLAS at a price. He made a gigantic move around the turn last out and looked like the winner an eighth of a mile from home, but just couldn’t get the job done after making that big move. #5 RAVENSWORTH has looked right at home in his last few an could play a part at a price. #8 KING OF SPEED and #2 EIGHTEENTHOFMARCH must be used as well, and wider tickets may even want to spread down to #10 TONY TERRIFIC.
Picks: #7 CAPE SAN BLAS, #5 RAVENSWORTH, #6 PISTOL PETE AFLEET
Race 10: I’m a huge fan of #1 TAZZ, and I think he should have won his last race. I think that if he runs his race, he’s way too good for these, and if Chris Emigh keeps busy on him down the lane, this is his race. For the late pick-4, I’ll single him, but here are a few others to use underneath. #6 EAT N RUN gets back to his preferred surface, and don’t let the slow time of that off-the-turf run last out dissuade you. He’s much better than that. #7 STANLEY G. was uncharacteristically flat last time and should bounce back.
Picks: #1 TAZZ, #6 EAT N RUN, #7 STANLEY G.
Race 11: #3 HAPMAN was never a factor in his last and he is most certainly better than that race showed. He was a good 2nd behind #9 BULLET FROM ABROAD three back, and that guy has just gotten really, really good this meet. BULLET FROM ABROAD figures the big favorite while looking for his 4th win in a row, and he seems tough to beat, but I wouldn’t want to be singled to just him. There is a ton of speed in here and #10 JOHNNY TORNADO could benefit from it. He was a winner the only time he went sprinting on the lawn, and he’s going to be a huge price. #4 X MARKER is good enough.
Picks: #3 HAPMAN, #9 BULLET FROM ABROAD, #10 JOHNNY TORNADO
For this Late Pick-4 ticket from races 8-11, I’ll be spending $72, but if you’re inclined to use it as a starting point, just toss those horses out that you really don’t like that I’ve used.
Late Pick-4 Ticket:
Race 8: (3 horses) #1 DREAMINOFJOSEPHINE, #3 ROCHELLE ROCHELLE, #5 SPUNKY MONKEY
Race 9: (6 horses) #2 EIGHTEENTHOFMARCH, #5 RAVENSWORTH, #6 PISTOL PETE AFLEET, #7 CAPE SAN BLAS, #8 KING OF SPEED, #10 TONY TERRIFIC
Race 10: (1 horse) #1 TAZZ
Race 11: (4 horses) #3 HAPMAN, #4 X MARKER, #9 BULLET FROM ABROAD, #10 JOHNNY TORNADO
Good luck! Let me know what you think!